A series of posts of ‘Adieu 2020’ have demonstrated the correlations between visitor count on year-end holidays and the COVID19 infections. Turin, Italy is selected as the next city for these series. There are a few reasons for this decision.
- Turin is the capital city of Piedmont in northern Italy and known for its refined architecture and cuisine. In 2017, Turin has attracted 13th most tourists in Italy.
- Turin has reported a large number of total COVID19 infections, 111,230 as of 01/16/2020, whose share of the population in the city is 1 in 20 people.
Figure 1: Visitor Count with Predictions (December 2020)
As we already recognize from the previous posts of another city in Italy, the population in Turin also shows extremely low movement around the holidays, Christmas and New year’s day. Compared to the population flow from the last week, it dropped by at most 78%. Then, how would this affect the covid cases in Italy?
Figure 2: Daily New Cases of COVID19 in Italy (11/01/2020 – 16/01/2021)
Considering the expected incubation period until the COVID19 symptom to appear takes up to 14 days, we should set the relevant period to be around 14 days as of December 2020. Since October, after summer vacation, the case of infections has increased implying the start of another wave. With the awareness of risk, citizens have shown the decreased population flow around holidays. Thus, although the virus becomes more contagious during the winter, the daily new cases have decreased below the half of the high peak.
The news is based on the LBASense of DFRC, real-time population analytics. If you want to know more about our solutions, you can find more details here.